MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
SLIDE 12 – But isn‟t it just the sun?
The previous graphs have already shown us that temperature changes can only
really be explained by man‟s emissions. If we want further proof we can look at the
effect of solar activity.
The top line shows us the temperature change (based on measurements from all
over the world and shown as an 11 year average). We can see that the graph
goes up and the change has increased over the years. BUT if we look at the solar
irradiance (a measure of the energy that the sun has been producing) which is the
bottom line, over the years, it does not go up. So it does not explain the increase
in temperatures.
SLIDE 13 – What would one expect to happen with global warming?
- A shift in the mean state of the atmosphere → climate change
- A warmer atmosphere means a warmer ocean
Ice melt leads to sea level rise
- The complex weather system is shifted into a new state
The weather will change (i.e. some places wetter/some drier, some
warmer and some cooler)
SLIDE 14 – What is going to happen in the future?
- We are still emitting green house gases, so the atmosphere will continue
to warm
- How much it warms depends on the future scenario you choose
This slide shows us the predictions, combined from a large number of computer
models, that have been used to predict the future temperature increases. The
different lines are basically for different amounts of emission that the world might
produce. The amounts produced will depend on what man does e.g try to limit
the amount of GHGs produced (eg through switching to renewable forms of
energy, using less fuel, population not continuing to expand rapidly etc) or man
not attempting to limit GHG production (see the steeper lines). If people want to
know the exact scenarios that each line is for please see the IPPC report (IR4
available on the www).
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
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